Nitish Kumar had snapped ties with NDA in 2013 after 17 years of togetherness when the BJP decided to project Narendra Modi as their prime ministerial candidate. This break up lasted only till last July when he announced his inability to continue in the Maha-gathbandhan government along with the ‘tainted’ RJD leadership and ‘weakening’ Congress.
Being an architect of the 2015 Maha-gathbandhan in Bihar, which brought together Lalu Prasad and the Congress under this umbrella, Nitish Kumar was being seen by many as the prospective leader of a non-BJP alliance that could challenge Narendra Modi’s overwhelming political supremacy in time for the 2019 general election.
Let us go back to 2013 and understand a few events from Nitish Kumar’s perspective.
Nitish Kumar wants to be a governance leader and not a political leader alone. And he is a so-called socialist, who have not found much political space in recent times, across India. For him to remain a governance leader with limited mass-backing; he needs to align with other parties. BJP was an experiment alliance – a very successful one – for him.
Nitish Kumar misread BJP and his alliance with them. He placed the entire alliance’ foundation on Atal-ji initially and then Atal-Advani-ji duo. To some extent, he was right. Atal-Advani duo were also experimenting (particularly in the backdrop of the failed experience during Rajiv Gandhi time). Both parties were extending themselves to make the alliance work. Nitish found an able ‘Bihari’ partner in Sushil Kumar Modi.
Like many political leaders of 2014, Nitish miscalculated the extent of change Indian electorate was looking for, the energy of Narendra Modi, and an evolved Narendra Modi. Nitish broke ranks with a strong & working alliance to form the grand alliance with Lalu Yadav & Congress.
The assembly elections of Bihar of 2015 were lost by BJP as much as they were won by the grand alliance. Yes, Nitish did a good job of assembling together a strong caste-favored alliance. More important was Lalu Yadav’s energy, Lalu’s willingness to accommodate Congress & Nitish and Mr. Modi’ poor election campaign rhetoric. Bihar was one of the first large elections after Modi’ elevation as a PM. He underestimated the respect Indian people place on the PM’s words & language. Bihar elections were won by the grand alliance due to a combination of factors. Most important of these were Lalu Yadav the campaigner & strategist and Modi’s poor & distasteful campaign.
Few things happened after the 2015 win. Lalu Yadav got a life. Congress became emboldened. Nitish had to build a new working government & alliance to meet his aspirations of a governance leader. BJP went back to the drawing board.
Despite their personal differences, both Nitish & Lalu, made good attempts, initially, to keep the alliance running. Nitish was making the extra effort to ensure his government was performing. Age & experience sometimes limits flexibility. Nitish was his own reference point for the Bihar electorate. He misread his ability to influence RJD & Congress (via RJD). Nitish, also, miscalculated the other Modi (Sushil Kumar) and his role as an opposition leader. Sushil Kumar Modi was not losing a single opportunity to compare the Grand Alliance government performance with the previous NDA government and at the same time playing the role of an opposition leader, almost to perfection. With the benefit of hindsight, one can say, Kumar could not imagine the extent of importance on governance that Modi government would place. Nitish was clearly not doing as well as earlier. Though, it was not all lost.
To be fair to Nitish, he did make several & continuous attempts to keep the alliance government intact. Lalu & Congress pushed the envelope much farther than they should have and this is what resulted in the divorce with Nitish Kumar. One will never know if the formation of the present-day NDA government in Bihar was pre-planned or not. Considering the comments from Sushil Modi & Nitish Kumar on face value and the reaction of Sharad Yadav; one can assume it was not pre-planned. The pressure on Nitish to live up to his governance leader image was very high from BJP, for sure.
Frankly, it doesn’t matter if the re-alliance with BJP was pre-planned.
This re-alliance between BJP & JD(U) is a marriage of convenience; though a proven and working alliance. It suits both parties i.e. Nitish Kumar & BJP. Nitish can focus on regaining & retaining his governance leader desire and BJP can spend its ammunition to get other states into their fold (in time for 2019 elections). There is nothing more to read into this.
This alliance will not make BJP an automatic choice for 2019. Narendra Modi has set the imagination of the electorate to high levels. Remember, Garibi Hatao from Indira Gandhi and the hope induced into the Indian electorate by the ‘then’ fresh imagination about India by Rajiv Gandhi. Both these leaders induced hope and failed subsequently. Rajiv Gandhi also used the available electronic media & savvy election campaign techniques. There are few differences though. One, this BJP team has a good listening ear and they fine-tune. Two, the perseverance exhibited by Modi on the governance side is presently unmatched. They are playing a long game with clear targets for short- to medium-term electoral gains. Nitish coming back to the fold of NDA could have few fringe benefits like Shiv Sena tempering itself a little, TDP becoming more cautious, etc. NDA could benefit from Nitish Kumar organizational capabilities and his appeal across the spectrum of NDA parties to some extent.
Other than this, it is business as usual for Nitish & BJP.